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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.