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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent underperformers rising in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still